| Scenario-Based Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential for Passenger Vehicles, Considering Electrification in the Republic of Korea |
| Haechan Choi1, Jihwan Park1, Cha-Lee Myung1, Hoimyung Choi2, Inji Park3, Charyung Kim3, Kyoungdoug Min1 |
1Department of Mechanical Engineering, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea
2Department of Mechanical Engineering, Gachon University, 1342, Seongnam-daero, Sujeong-gu, Seongnam, Gyeonggi, Republic of Korea
3Korea Automobile Testing & Research Institute, Korea Transportation Safety Authority, 200, Samjon-ro, Songsan-myeon, Hwaseong, Gyeonggi, Republic of Korea |
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Received: January 20, 2025; Revised: February 23, 2025 Accepted: February 24, 2025. Published online: April 28, 2025. |
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| ABSTRACT |
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This study assessed the potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger vehicles in the Republic of Korea and evaluated the feasibility of meeting nationally determined contribution (NDC) targets. Scenarios were developed in three areas: vehicle registration, average mileage, and average GHG emissions of newly registered vehicles. Total GHG emissions were projected by selecting scenarios for each area. The results indicate that achieving the transportation sector’s NDC target remains a significant challenge, even under the most optimistic emission reduction scenarios. Additionally, calculations were conducted to evaluate the adequacy of average GHG emission regulations for newly registered vehicles. The results reveal that full compliance with these regulations would achieve less than half of the target reduction. Even in a scenario where all newly registered vehicles from 2024 onward are zero-emission, the reduction would fall slightly short of the NDC target. |
| Key Words:
Greenhouse gas · Passenger vehicle · CO2 reduction potential · Electrification · Nationally determined contribution |
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Corresponding Author.
Kyoungdoug Min , Email. 
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