Research on the Coupling Effects of Risk Factors Based on the N-K Model: A Case Study of  RTATMF in China

Ma, Xianke; Yang, Jianjun; Chen, Peng; Li, Pingfei; Tan, Zhengping; Hu, Wenhao; Shi, Liangliang; Hao, Mengjun

doi:2026.27.3.1063

International Journal of Automotive Technology > Volume 27(3); 2026 > Article

International Journal of Automotive Technology 2026;27(3): 1063-1075.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12239-025-00342-5

Research on the Coupling Effects of Risk Factors Based on the N-K Model: A Case Study of RTATMF in China

Xianke Ma^1,2, Jianjun Yang^1,2,3, Peng Chen¹, Pingfei Li^1,2,3, Zhengping Tan^1,2,3, Wenhao Hu⁴, Liangliang Shi⁵, Mengjun Hao⁶

¹School of Automobile and Transportation, Xihua University, Chengdu, 610039, China
²Sichuan Xihua Jiaotong Forensic Centre, Chengdu, 610039, China
³Yibin Institute in Xihua University, Yibin, 644000, Sichuan, China
⁴State Administration for Market Regulation, Defective Product Administrative Center, Beijing, 100191, China
⁵China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd, Chongqing, 401122, China
⁶Yibin Vocational and Technical College (YVTC), Yibin, 644000, Sichuan, China

Corresponding Author. Jianjun Yang , Email. yangjj@mail.xhu.edu.cn

Received: May 19, 2025; Revised: July 3, 2025 Accepted: July 24, 2025. Published online: September 3, 2025.

ABSTRACT

To examine the influence of the coupled action of multiple risk factors on road traffic accidents involving three or more fatalities (RTATMF), this study analyzed 380 RTATMF cases in China from 2009 to 2023, analyzing drivers, vehicles, roads, and environmental aspects, and subdividing them into 17 secondary risk factors. By leveraging the N-K model, AHP, and entropy weight method, we constructed a coupling degree model for the risk causes of RTATMF and proposed a full-dimensional risk resilience decoupling model. The results show that more coupled causal factors increase transportation system complexity, uncertainty, and accident probability. Notably, single-factor couplings of driver-related risks (0.799) and road–hazard combinations (0.762), and the strongest three-factor interaction among drivers–vehicles–environment (0.1828) significantly impact the system. In the two factors coupling, driver–environment and road–environment have the trend of strong coupling effect. The above results can provide effective countermeasures for preventing RTATMF and provide references for improving road traffic safety in China. This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Key Words: Traffic safety · Risk causation · Multi-factor coupling · N-K model · Coupling model · Road traffic accidents involving three or more fatalities